Assessment of Master Thesis – Academic Consultant
Study programme:Quantitative Methods in Economics Field of study:Quantitative Economic Analysis
Academic year:2020/2021
Master Thesis Topic:Regression analysis of the relationship between economic growth and foreign aid in Africa
Author’s name:Jean Gabin Ngango
Ac. Consultant’s Name:Mgr. Milan Bašta, Ph.D.
Opponent:Ing. Karel Helman, Ph.D.
Criterion Mark
(1–4)
1. Clarity and comprehensibility of the thesis topic and aims 1
2. The extent and relevance of the description of the current state of knowledge 1
3. The complexity of the thesis topic 2
4. Method adequeteness for solving the given issue, correctness of the choice and use 2
5. The extent, quality and precision of the result description 2
6. Relevance and correctness of the result discussion 2
7. Factual contribution of the thesis result 2
8. Information source relevance and citation correctness 1
9. Logical structure and cohesion among individual parts 2
10. Grammar, linguistic style, terminology and overall arrangement 2
11. Student’s initiative and cooperation with the supervisor 1
12. The use of analytical and data processing methods 2
13. Meeting the principles of ethics and sustainability 1
14. Critical and creative thinking 1
Comments and Questions:
Jean Gabin Ngango deals with an interesting topic in his master’s thesis, namely the analysis of the relationship between economic growth and foreign aid in Africa. For the analysis Jean Gabin uses a dataset of most African countries spanning a time period from 2014 to 2018.
Jean Gabin started working on the topic more than a year before the submission of the thesis and has always showed true passion and interest in the subject and tried to deeply understand whether foreign aid indeed helps the recipient countries or whether it rather leads to corruption.
What I appreciate most in the thesis is the literature review, namely an exhaustive list of resources Jean Gabin went through, read, and summarized in the introductory parts of the thesis. The number of items in the list of references exceeds the usual number of papers and books reviewed by students as a part of their diploma theses at our university. Jean Gabin reviews the major contributions to the field as well as modelling approaches. He demonstrates that the results concerning the effect of aid are mixed and inconclusive in the literature and may be difficult to assess due to various confounding variables, nonlinearities, interaction effects and endogeneity issues.
Jean Gabin further introduces several theories on foreign aid. Even though I appreciate the range of theories covered, the text is cumbersome at some places. More structure to the presentation of the topic would also be welcomed (more separate sections and perhaps a better guidance of the reader through the theory so that the reader understands the connection between individual paragraphs).
Concerning the practical part, I appreciate the used dataset and the analysis in R. I also appreciate the exploratory part of the analysis (called Univariate analysis and Bivariate analysis) which comes before the
regression analysis. However, a little bit more detailed statistics and breakdown of the numbers (more plots and tables) is missing. Moreover, for some selected countries the reader would also be interested in a detailed discussion of the numbers in the context of relevant economic and political events.
I would also appreciate a more detailed presentation and breakdown of the other exploratory variables used in the regression analysis such as inflation, trade openness, population, etc. What do these variables look like for various countries, how are these variables correlated, what is the story behind these variables for some selected countries?
Concerning the regression analysis itself its results seem generally sensible. I like the various plots capturing the nonlinear and interaction effects. On the other hand, the analysis and the corresponding discussion of the results is rather short. Too much emphasis is perhaps placed on statistical significance testing, with practical implications of the results being described only very briefly. No detailed confrontation of the empirical results with the theory is given either. Some sentences are not clear what they mean.
More questions could have been addressed in the analysis: Are there any regression outliers, i.e.
countries that behave differently (in terms of the regression relationship) from the rest of the countries? If some countries were omitted from the analysis, would it change the results? What is the role of
confounding variables? What are the strengths and weaknesses of the analysis?
Validator (”theses”) has found a 2% similarity with other resources and iThenticate has found a 22%
similarity. A great portion of the match is in the items in the list of references (which is rather long) and in general sentences and phrases and at some places in the literature review (where references to the original resources are given). The reported similarity is thus not a problem – the thesis is an original work.
I would like to ask the student to answer the following questions during the defence of the thesis:
1. Are there any regression outliers, i.e. countries which do not obey the regression relationship which holds true for the rest (majority) of the countries? Which countries are these and why do they behave differently?
2. What is the interpretation of the plot in Figure 9 (Aid interacting with trade openness)? Are these results in agreement with the theory? What do these results imply?
3. Would you please select one country from your list of countries and describe the specifics of economic growth, foreign aid and other variables for this country in detail?
In summary, Jean Gabin has shown a great passion and interest in the analysed topic. I appreciate a detailed literature review. Jean Gabin has accomplished the major goals he has set up in the thesis.
However, based on his passion for the topic, I expected a little bit more refined and elaborate analysis and presentation of the results together with a more detailed confrontation of the empirical results with the theory. I recommend the thesis for defence and suggest grade 2.
Conclusion: The Master Thesis is recommended for the defence.
Suggested Grade: 2
Date: 26/05/2021 Mgr. Milan Bašta, Ph.D.
Academic Consultant
