Assessment of Master’s thesis – Academic Consultant
Study programme:Quantitative Methods in Economics Field of study:Quantitative Economic Analysis
Academic year:2021/2022
Master’s thesis Topic:FINANCIAL, TECHNICAL AND STRATEGIC ANALYSIS: METHODS AND
TECHNIQUES FOR ANALYZING BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT AND COMPETITION FOR OPTION TRADING
Author’s name:Damini
Ac. Consultant’s Name:Ing. Adam Čabla, Ph.D.
Opponent:Ing. Filip Habarta
Criterion Mark
(1–4)
1. Clarity and comprehensibility of the thesis topic and aims 2
2. The extent and relevance of the description of the current state of knowledge 3
3. The complexity of the thesis topic 3
4. Method adequeteness for solving the given issue, correctness of the choice and use 4
5. The extent, quality and precision of the result description 4
6. Relevance and correctness of the result discussion 4
7. Factual contribution of the thesis result 3
8. Information source relevance and citation correctness 4
9. Logical structure and cohesion among individual parts 4
10. Grammar, linguistic style, terminology and overall arrangement 4
11. Student’s initiative and cooperation with the supervisor 3
12. The use of analytical and data processing methods 3
13. Meeting the principles of ethics and sustainability 1
14. Critical and creative thinking 3
Comments and Questions:
The thesis topic is suitable for the master thesis. Aim was not clearly defined, but I assume it to be hidden in the words in Introduction:
”We will try to present...1) Financial analysis, 2) Secondly we will make use of latest tools available in python to do Technical Analysis which will also implement the machine learning...”
The two-fold aim of the thesis is not necesarilly wrong, but in this case it leads to two different and rather disconnected topics being presented – financial analysis of selected company (Česká Zbrojovka Group) and linear and logistic regression as tools of predicting movements on forex within five-minute timeframes.
The financial analysis of ČZG indeed contains some important financial figures but next to it it also contains a lot of texts about topics that may be interesting from managerial perspective, but are far from the aim, like SWOT analysis of Porter´s 5 forces. The financial figures (like e.g. EBITDA, P/E, EV/Sales) are taken without correctly specified sources and used in something called Residual Income Model and relative valuation analysis. There is no explanation how are the models calculated. The final advice is to sell the company stocks based on the these unknown models. (Traditional) technical analysis terms are outlined at the end of this chapter, but not used whatsover.
As a side note: the table of contents stops here revealing the real disconection between this part and other parts of the tesis.
Another part deals with rebalancing portfolio strategy, but it lacks depth – e.g. why were 6 stocks used?
Why Dow Jones and not, e.g. S&P? What would performance looked like if these chocies were different?
This small part ends with acknowledging that under the different market conditions, the results might be oposite, but there is no pursue of exploring what it would look like.
In a chapter 9, author promises us to ”discuss the technical analysis and fundamental analysis and for technical indicators, we will look into fairly popular TIs which include MACD, RSI, ADX, OBV, etc...”. None of this happens.
The last part spreading over almost 40 pages is about implementing linear and logistic regression models to predict the moves of currency pair EUR/USD and that´s basically all of ”machine learning” promised.
In the Conlcusions the author comes back to analysis of ČZG and tells us, that for technical analysis there were not enough data, ”but we have managed to bring the results on three important indicators – MACD, CCI & RSi...”. I do not recall seeing these in the thesis. Last three paragraphs lamenting about the state of Prague Stock Exchange and its possible impact on the Czech economy might or might not be close to truth; but they are totally disconected from the thesis. If the author was unable to reach the thesis goals, she could switch to different company (or companies) from some of the largest stock exchanges around the world.
As for some other details – there is no need to write details of the Python procedures, like how to load data. The author should check how to correctly divide text into chapters.
The language used in the thesis is rather odd. There are parts, clearly written by the author, in which English is poor and language generally very informal, not suitable for the thesis. And on the other hand there are parts, in which English is well written and easily understandable and much more formal. This brings in the question, how this happens – whether e.g. these parts were taken from some documents and incorrectly cited, or whether sort of translator was used in these parts but not in others.
Anti-plagiarism software finds 10 % of similarity between the text and searched documents. Most of it are slightly modified cited sources.
The last note will be about citations – several citation does not follow correct format (like e.g. ”exchange, 2021” which leads us in references to Prague Stock Exchange website). The references are not sorted in a meaningful way.
The idea for the thesis is the authors, the thesis itself was written in a rush.
Generally speaking – the thesis is not suitable for defence – formally, linguistically, it is not focused on reaching pre-specified goal(s), does not meet what it promises and contains far too many errors and confusing statements.
Conclusion: The Master’s thesis is not recommended for the defence.
Suggested Grade: 4
Date: 26/01/2022 Ing. Adam Čabla, Ph.D.
Academic Consultant
