Assessment of Master’s thesis – Opponent
Study programme:Quantitative Methods in Economics Field of study:Quantitative Economic Analysis
Academic year:2021/2022
Master’s thesis Topic:FINANCIAL, TECHNICAL AND STRATEGIC ANALYSIS: METHODS AND
TECHNIQUES FOR ANALYZING BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT AND COMPETITION FOR OPTION TRADING
Author’s name:Damini
Ac. Consultant’s Name:Ing. Adam Čabla, Ph.D.
Opponent:Ing. Filip Habarta
Criterion Mark
(1–4)
1. Clarity and comprehensibility of the thesis topic and aims 3
2. The extent and relevance of the description of the current state of knowledge 4
3. The complexity of the thesis topic 3
4. Method adequeteness for solving the given issue, correctness of the choice and use 4
5. The extent, quality and precision of the result description 4
6. Relevance and correctness of the result discussion 4
7. Factual contribution of the thesis result 4
8. Information source relevance and citation correctness 3
9. Logical structure and cohesion among individual parts 3
10. Grammar, linguistic style, terminology and overall arrangement 4
Comments and Questions:
The author chose a topic that is recent and very practical. Choice of a local stock (CZG) that is new on the market and brings a lot of opportunities for the intended analysis is good.
The whole master’s thesis strongly resembles a mixture of various beginners’ tutorials about stock analysis that are put together, ranging from the fundamental analysis to the introduction to machine learning with python. The main structure of the thesis tries to go from the analysis of the general condition of the company and market to the quantitative analysis which is a correct approach. But a lot of important parts are missing in the structure on the lower levels of the thesis. The theoretical aspects of methods are mostly missing, and results and discussions would deserve much larger attention. The presented methods for quantitative analysis are insufficient and basic. The use of cluster analysis on the presented data does not make sense, even more so when the author used the regression method in the form of logistic regression. There are additional problems in the existing parts, for example, the part of the thesis that describes how to download data in the style of “click here and there” is irrelevant for the thesis, further the description of the second option, the use of API to download data shows the inability to describe the process correctly or misunderstanding of it.
The anti-plagiarism software showed thesis conformity of 10% with other works which is not a negligible number given the lack of citations in the thesis. The sources are presented in a confusing manner, some of which are even presented multiple times (e.g. Damodaran, A. (2012)…).
From the formal perspective, the presented thesis is far from ideal, beginning with the wrong JEL classification, different styles presented in the table of content, use of informal English language, to the incorrect presentation of images/code that is mostly presented as “screenshots” that are blurry and missing sources.
Considering the data used for the quantitative analysis in the thesis it suggests that the author worked on the thesis mainly in the last few weeks before the submission which adds to its recentness, but also explains that a lot of parts of the thesis seems to be unfinished.
Presented quantitative methods (e.g. simple linear regression) are methods that would be too simple even for a bachelor thesis and does not correspond to the knowledge that should be shown in this scope after masters studies.
Overall, I do not recommend this thesis for defence, with a suggested grade 4.
For discussion during the defence of the thesis, I recommend the following questions:
1) In your thesis you present a basic linear regression model, could you explain the difference between dependent and independent variables and state some examples in connection with your thesis?
2) While you are discussing model backtesting in the thesis, you mention the following sentence – “The criticism of this thing is obvious, and that is that back testing is almost entirely based on historical data.” – could you describe the backtesting process once more?
3) You state that predicting stock prices is wrong, could you explain this statement in more detail?
Conclusion: The Master’s thesis is not recommended for the defence.
Suggested Grade: 4
Date: 24/01/2022 Ing. Filip Habarta
Opponent
